Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.070064 2.175410 2.288021 2.418247 2.565870 2.729497 2.926732
2025-08-17 1.957192 2.089036 2.235100 2.411095 2.620551 2.866264 3.183583
2025-08-24 1.882302 2.029892 2.197382 2.405063 2.661142 2.974878 3.403474
2025-08-31 1.826237 1.984686 2.167813 2.400009 2.694586 3.068830 3.606047
2025-09-07 1.794865 1.964211 2.163215 2.420844 2.756714 3.199051 3.867643
2025-09-14 1.727899 1.896789 2.096741 2.358057 2.703066 3.165288 3.881983
2025-09-21 1.696085 1.869702 2.077349 2.352285 2.721754 3.229002 4.045608
2025-09-28 1.655773 1.830126 2.040006 2.320242 2.701205 3.232819 4.110989
2025-10-05 1.654601 1.837993 2.061471 2.364691 2.786255 3.393891 4.452534
2025-10-12 1.662434 1.856612 2.096374 2.427475 2.899550 3.606073 4.920247
2025-10-19 1.641647 1.838111 2.082245 2.422299 2.913258 3.662307 5.105343
2025-10-26 1.625534 1.824765 2.073930 2.424042 2.936084 3.733195 5.328400
2025-11-02 1.585047 1.780201 2.024571 2.368531 2.872848 3.661076 5.250721
2025-11-09 1.565100 1.761273 2.008134 2.357968 2.876133 3.699226 5.412928
2025-11-16 1.547119 1.744236 1.993428 2.348824 2.880312 3.737812 5.580391
2025-11-23 1.530807 1.728814 1.980213 2.340923 2.885325 3.776977 5.754138
2025-11-30 1.525228 1.726910 1.984624 2.357751 2.928767 3.885981 6.118306
2025-12-07 1.490084 1.685827 1.935469 2.295925 2.845233 3.759545 5.858677
2025-12-14 1.476748 1.672941 1.923992 2.288188 2.847239 3.789258 6.011710
2025-12-21 1.454740 1.648331 1.896174 2.255967 2.808859 3.742217 5.953397
2025-12-28 1.460588 1.660152 1.917681 2.295785 2.887206 3.916619 6.535937
2026-01-04 1.472403 1.679895 1.950238 2.352681 2.996228 4.161363 7.436957
2026-01-11 1.461403 1.669128 1.940513 2.346117 2.998901 4.194719 7.664754